I believe the newbies and other mere plebs like me whogo into the topic should listen to the teachings of JuanJayGee. I may not agree with all of his teachings, but it's just because of personal differences/preferences. Ask JuanJayGee if the current levels are good to buy Bitcoin blindly, and profit by selling two years later. His answer will be YES, and I definitely agree.
For the best traders, they know how to have good timing in their entries to have 5x leverage, then have 5x the profit, but only the best 10% of traders in the market can do it. How can we plebs beat them in their own game if they are better capitalized that us, more skilled than us, and they have an army of their bots trading against you.
I don't really suggest selling except as a bitcoin management technique after you have already largely over accumulated and if you are in profits, so let's say for example, if you started considering investing into bitcoin about two years ago, so it was not really a good time to start your bitcoin investment plan and two years ago you had a $100k investment portfolio (non-BTC items.. such as index funds, bonds, and perhaps property), and you targeted to buy 15% in bitcoin. So you took about a year or so to buy into bitcoin, and so last year when the BTC price dropped into the $30ks, you had reached your investment goal target of investing $15k into BTC.
However, we know what happened from May 2022 until now, BTC prices kept dropping below $30k and then you decided to keep buying BTC, so maybe in the 8 months or so you continue to buy BTC until you had invested nearly $25k into BTC, so you went way above your investment allocation, so in those kinds of circumstances in which you end up being overinvested into bitcoin (beyond your initial authorization level of 15%), you could authorize yourself to sell some BTC along the way while you are in profits, even though it likely would be better to merely keep investing into bitcoin for 4-10 years or even to HODL through various periods into the future in order to increase likelihood that the BTC portfolio will be in profits and that future investments and also profits within the overall investment holdings will be able to start to compound upon itself.. yet each person has to decide for themselves regarding how to manage their investment portfolio, and for sure there are no guarantees of profits.. so a person who may well have exceeded his/her investment allocation targets of having more value into BTC than originally intended will have more flexibility to sell some of that BTC along the way than someone who had not. and especially if the BTC price ends up outperforming other assets that are held within the investment portfolio....
And, personally, I do not necessarily advocate to sell your winners, but surely there can be ways to manage your holdings in order that you might shave off relatively small portions of the profits as the BTC price is going up (if the BTC price goes up, and especially if the BTC price substantially outperforms other assets in the investment portfolio).
By the way, I believe that it is not a good idea to follow the suggestions of some investment advisors who argue that you should continue to reallocate back to your original authorization levels.. and I believe more in the idea of letting your winners ride, especially if they are outperforming your other investment assets that you are holding, yet of course, shaving some profits off along the way still can be helpful in managing some of the volatility and without devolving into gambling with your overall investment portfolio, but perhaps come up with some kind of a formula regarding how much BTC that you authorize yourself to sell as the price goes up (in the event that the BTC price goes up), so you could sell 1% for every time it goes up 10% or some other variation of that.
If you got into bitcoin in the last 1, 2 or even 3 years, you may well still be in the negative, if you had been buying BTC on a regular basis during that time, and even if you had attempted to buy on dips, it may not have changed the outcome very much between whether buying on dips is preferable to DCA.
Even though for sure, I am not completely opposed to the idea of buying on dips, I believe at best buying on dips supplements DCA'ing strategies rather than substitutes for DCA'ing strategies, so in that regard, I personally believe that a reliance on mostly DCA allows normies to be a wee bit more aggressive and assertive in their abilities to accumulate BTC and it also facilitates the abilities of normies to focus on the more important things - which is their own budgets rather than the BTC price. The BTC price is likely quite a lot less important than figuring out your own fucking budget, even though so many newbies to bitcoin (and even newbies to investing) get distracted into concentrating so much on the actual short term price performance of the asset in which they are investing, and in this case we are referring to bitcoin, but the error of ways seems to apply to any asset.. and for sure, there is a need to figure out various fundamental aspects of the asset class because ultimately you should believe in the long term fundamentals of any asset class once you start to invest into it... but once you have gotten past the hurdles of mostly figuring out the fundamentals of the asset class, it seems to me that more important thing is to thereafter figure out your own budget and to figure out way that you can employ somewhat aggressive/assertive investing tactics without over doing it... and you do that by figuring out yourself and your finances and psychology.. and thereafter applying it to bitcoin with perhaps a set DCA and some supplemental buying on dips and perhaps lump sum investing too.... and of course, if you run out of money from time to time, there likely will be needs to just HODL through the low cashflow situations until either your cashflow improves or the price comes to your buying points.
I entered in the last 1 year to buy bitcoin regularly until now and it hasn't changed anything, the results mean that it is still negative from what is generated from buying high and buying low, all of that varies from what I have done with my DCA like it so far.
So it's not for now to see the results of the profit because we will wait longer in the process by accumulating from DCA.
Yes.. it seems that anyone getting into bitcoin in the last 2-3 years might not be in profits, so sometimes it can make some differences to have some buying on dips that are mixed in with the DCA.
For me it was similar, it took a couple of years to start to feel like my BTC holdings were pretty solid, and even more than 3 years for my first purchases that I made in late 2013 to become profitable... by early 2017.. and surely, there are not even any guarantees about how long it might take and whether it will end up being profitable, even though many of us still consider bitcoin to be amongst the best (if not the best) place to build a decently solid long term investment portfolio.. yet in the end, each person is responsible for their own investment decisions regarding if they do it and how they do it... and some of those folks who had opportunities 4-10 years ago, are kicking themselves if they did not get in or if they ended up getting in later -- but yeah, even when there are periods of profits, there can be periods in which the BTC holdings are not in profits and are quite negative in terms of where they are at relative to other possible investments/assets/currencies.
True, we don't think of it like that buying dips just to supplement the DCA only when I have more dollars then I do that but not for all depending on dips this is more difficult if you do it continuously and better with a simpler DCA we can start smaller with DCA than dips with big numbers because I know it won't be continuous with dips.
It seems to be a lot easier to see the dips after you have already gone through them; however, while you are in the midst of the dipping, it is not easy to see either whether the dip is over or how far it will go or even if it is going to dip anymore. Sometimes, even when folks are saying that there is going to be more dip, such "more dips" do not end up happening.
My ability is to continue to accumulate bitcoins with DCA and this has been adjusted according to my own income variations, this is normal for me there will be no pressure whatsoever I am not overly aggressive in this matter because we need a balance that has been done so far, the important thing is that I continue input DCA and when there is an opportunity to buy dips then I do that.
So both are just to complement in between DCA and Dips, my goal now is how to earn bitcoins in a way that can keep up with my budget.
Yep.. sometimes, if you can figure out ways to earn more income (whether in bitcoin or in other ways such as cash or even savings on some expenses), then you may well see that you had been able to generate quite a few extra sats with that money. I recall some times in 2015 of having some kind of extra cashflow of a couple hundred dollars, and then I would buy bitcoin with it.. and at the time, it just seemed very risky.. but maybe if I bought $120 worth of bitcoin, then I ended up getting 0.5 BTC, and now that seems outrageously great, but at the time, there were feelings of uncertainty regarding if the BTC price was going to go back up or just stay stuck in the mid-$200s forever.
It's actually very easy to say that, and many people have said it here, but no one knows when the dip to buy is, there is no specific date, day, or time when, that's the problem, it's hard to distinguish the so-called right time to buy.
Maybe the best thing to do is save as much bitcoin as you can before everyone catches on and regrets not saving.
It seems to me that many of us are already saying similar things that you are saying bettercrypto.. NOT everyone is going to agree about whether more dip is coming, and frequently I have asserted that if you just keep buying BTC on a regular basis, then it will be easier; however, I understand why someone who might have $400 extra a month, might not want to spend it all on bitcoin at current prices, so they might save a certain portion to buy on dips, while realizing that maybe more dip will come and maybe it won't, so there is a certain risk that any of us has to accept if we choose to not buy and to wait for dips that might not end up happening. It is much easier for folks who have been in bitcoin for longer and who have been stacking sats for much longer, then those longer term persons might not be as worried about whether they have enough bitcoin at these prices or even at lower prices, but some folks who might have gotten into bitcoin in the past 2-3 years or even more recently than that might get more worried about whether they have stacked enough sats at these prices, and so it can take many years before anyone starts to feel comfortable with how many sats that s/he has stacked because sometimes the income to buy bitcoin might not be very high, so it can take several years to stack a sufficient quantity of sats away with whatever cashflow is available or can be saved without causing too much stress on other aspects of finances and/or psychology.
