In deed it is a good idea to take advantage of lower prices of Bitcoin whenever market creates a buying opportunity to book significant potential profit in future, but it is also important to remember that past performance doesn't guarantee future performance. Although Bitcoin has never dropped below its previous ATH but this time it happened which vindicates that history is not necessarily repeated every time and solely relying on technical analysis based on historical data may not be always reliable. It is crucial to also consider fundamental factors that can significantly influence the market behavior.

The market repeats its cycle but many times painful situations are created in the market to shake out the panic sellers. And that situation is seen after the last bull market, this bear market has bankrupted many big companies.

In investing, one has to be aware of the market conditions, otherwise the expected results are not seen later. Therefore, in order to invest, it is important for an investor to look at the market conditions as well as the future potential of the market.

BTC did fall on that level last time but I won't say those people who availed it are lucky. They are just patient by some extra percent to be able to wait for that price and maybe they have the courage because others don't believe that the price will continue to $15k as the dumped that happen is already massive.

As of now, I don't see that deep fall you are talking about but what I can see right now is a recovery though I am still aware that we are at $23k last time and then we fell down to $20k but it wasn't deep enough IMO. Hodling for the long term is still the best policy here in crypto and solves all the issues that we are facing such as the dips and the crashes.

The best method for newcomers who are interested to invest in crypto industry, is to utilizing Dollar cost average (DCA) for gradually accumulate Bitcoin and holding onto it for long term can be the most effective approach to maximizing profit . Day to day trading in Bitcoin is generally considered very risky, as Bitcoin is very volatile and highly unpredictable asset by its nature, unless you posses good technical skills to analyze charts to take informed entry and exit decisions. Additionally, to maintain good emotional control & employ risk/money management techniques is essential for successful trading.

Buy from the dip and hold these words contains a green signal. But some never find this word dip in their investment and some also find dips in a bullish trend. Emotions play a big role. Not everyone can buy from the dip. Currently the market is $24k but it is still dip for me and that's why I try to hold slowly as much as possible and some investors may think $30k will be also dip according to it's bullishness.

In and out of the market because of panic is because people are not long term investing oriented, paying attention to the news sentiment is good enough to be an entry indication to continue the weekly or monthly DCA, but if you have plenty of time to pay attention to it.
I really understand how panic comes when there is a decline and that is a natural thing for investors especially those who put their money in at once, now to overcome that is true, DCA is the best way to get rid of panic, because when an extreme decline occurs you can buy bitcoin at that time because the rest of your money to invest is still there, the orientation of the long-term mindset is also like that, don't care about the previous price and experience a decline because we can buy again when the decline occurs, and the sure thing is to hold bitcoin in the long term bitcoin price the previous high you bought will definitely be picked up again in the bullrun later, so the current panic due to FUD and decline is nothing in the future, because I believe that bitcoin will repeat the same cycle and the lowest price and highest price are always increases in each cycle.

The bankruptcy of the SVB bank because the Fed was too harsh in raising its interest rates so that it was not only the bitcoin market that was affected but caused a threat to banks that do have a little liquidity and I think that will be a consideration not to apply aggressiveness to interest rates.
Buying every dip at the current state is a pretty good thing in my opinion, because we are not yet in the bullrun phase, because if the bullrun phase has started I think it will be very difficult to find a decline like a few days ago which caused bitcoin to turn to $ 19k, and I think it's very difficult to wait for it to happen again, most likely we will make a new dip at the current resistance price.

Your insights about difficulties of timing the market and accurately predicting the dips in Bitcoin price are accurate. It is true that investing in Bitcoin is a long term game to make your investment profitable. It is also important to have a well thought out plan that aligns with your investment goals and risk tolerance. Dollar cost average (DCA) is a popular strategy to mitigate the impact of market volatility but we should keep in mind  that no investment strategy is entirely fool proof and there are always risk involved with investment.

I am not really sure if your response is saying much of anything.^**

(**ps.. I am not proclaiming to be saying much of anything either.. even though I felt somewhat compelled to attempt a response.... so there is that angle, too)..

We can choose to invest or not to invest into anything...  and those are investments of time, energy, psychology and financial value... invest or consume... or maybe there are more ways to frame our choices?

We can also choose how much to allocate to any investment, including choosing not to invest anything or to do nothing, which may well still add up to something similar to not investing anything.

Sometimes when we are young, we are not sure what we do not know, and so we are learning along the way, and surely some people start out with bad information, bad circumstances and bad options (or at least not very many options), and sometimes they can make choices to increase the odds that they will do better in life or that they might end up doing worse in life than what they could have had done.

Some folks have to work harder than others, and sometimes the hard work does not end up paying off, and maybe it could be more guaranteed that a person will not advance if they do not make any preparations to invest in themselves in various kinds of ways - and sometimes any of us could be presented with opportunties at certain ages, but those opportunities might not be available at later points in our lives, so if we do not choose at a certain point when we are in our 20s, we might not be able to make similar choices in our 30s, 40s or 50s because those opportunities to invest versus consume are no longer available.

In regards, to the bitcoin price it is possible that this week is the last time ever that prices will be below $30k, so there could be an opportunity to invest..

But the fact of the matter remains that we do not know, and we could be kicking ourselves if we took out a loan for all of our income for the next 5 years and we invested it into bitcoin at $27.5k, but then for the next 5 years, bitcoin prices end up getting stuck between $5k and $15k until the year 2028.... so then our investment ended up NOT paying off in a positive way, and we would have had been better off to just invest with money coming in rather than to front load our investment into bitcoin.

There are other ways that the future ends up playing out that our investment pays off stupendously, and our leveraging (including our having had taken out a loan - almost in a gambling capacity) had paid off way more than a more strict approach that relied only upon our income as it comes in.

Some folks are more inclined to gamble with the various ways that they invest, and surely some of us (including yours truly) would proclaim that they are not investing because they are inadequately accounting for the various outcome directions, so even if they might be successful for a while, if they continue with that kind of practice, the odds become higher that they are going to end up either losing big time or to at least have had done worse than if they had taken a more prudent approach.. .. there are ways to be aggressive and prudent at the same time, and frequently the line is not clear... the line between investing and consumption might not be clear and the line between investing and gambling might not be clear either... yet each of us has to make our choices based on the information and resources that we have available, even if we might not actually understand the information or the resources that we have available or how that we can use our information/resources and even if there might be people in the world with better information/resources than us.. and sometimes the one with inferior information/resources will later surpass the person who had superior information/resources based on choices that had been made earlier in life.  Of course, there are no guarantees that doing the right (or better) thing will end up paying off.


Of course, no one can predict, and some folks have better information views than others, and some people figure out better ways to "play" their options/outlooks than others.


Yes.  There are ways to play your bitcoin options that give a lot of weight to that or alternatively there are ways to play your bitcoin option in ways that attempt to account for more important (and other) variables... in order that you are largely prepared for no matter what ends up happening....

For years there have been people who have been basing their investment choices into bitcoin based on what they believe that the fed will do and/or other macro factors, and they have been touting out nonsense regarding how bitcoin prices are correlated to equities, fed rates and various other macro factors like that, and sure there may well be some short term correlation, but a lot of people have gotten fucked because they fail/refuse to appreciate the reality that bitcoin is way less correlated than what the various pundits are proscribing it to be.


Yes.. of course, anything could happen, including that the bottom of $15,479 might not be in... but also it is also possible that the bottom is in, and we will never see prices below $27k ever again.

I would suggest that it would be better to be prepared for a variety of scenarios, while at the same time appreciating that some scenarios are more likely than others, and frequently, it is not too your interest to put too much preparation into scenarios that are less likely to happen or to prepare for something that is going to cost you a lot to prepare for and it might not end up happening...

so yeah..

choices must be made regarding how much dry powder to deploy, under what circumstances and whether whatever you have been doing is already good enough or whether there is some need to tweak what you were doing to bring you into better alignment....

Not too many folks are going to know whether you are sufficiently/adequately aligned or not better than yourself, but sometimes even the self makes mistakes.. so shit does end up happening, including that we have had more than 9 months of opportunity to accumulate more bitcoin through a buying on the dip approach, so it may well be overly expecting matters in which more dip opportunities are coming... They might come, and they might not come, and hopefully, you are already sufficiently and adequately prepared for UP, just in case more dip does not end up happening.


Yes.. I surely do remember that, and yes something like that could end up happening, or it might not.  We are not currently in 2019 - even if there could be some similar dynamics going on, yet there could be some dynamics going on that end up looking way more clear down the road after the whole matter plays out, and maybe instead of correcting back down after a 3.5x price appreciation, no correction ends up happening.

I am not going to proclaim to either know what is going to happen, but I am not going to deviate from practices that I have already established over the more than 9 years that I have been in bitcoin in that I am largely prepared for either direction and even extremes, and in my own experience, the longer that any of us has been in bitcoin, the more that we should be able to figure out how much resources we are going to put into (or hold aside) in order to prepare for extremes in either direction that might happen (or might not end up happening).

Part of the problem that I have been finding for several years, is that there are a lot of folks who seem to want to tout these ideas of correlation, which yeah they are likely quite true in the short-term, but the misleading aspect is that it ONLY takes a short-period of non-correlation for those who had been relying on the correlation assertion to get fucked by their own reliance - so I personally believe it is way better to start from a premise that they are not correlated.. rather than starting from a premise that they are.. and in that regard, I hardly give a ratt's ass if BTC prices and equities (stock markets) are correlated 95% of the time, and then 5% of the time, BTC ends up doing a 10x jump in comparison to stocks/equities, and then thereafter BTC ends up going back to being correlated for the next 3-4 years until it is not correlated again for another 10x jump.. . You can look back at the BTC charts and you can see those kinds of patterns of mostly correlation except for those short-periods in which the BTC price jumps up 10x, 100x or whatever, and then comes back down.

. so the fact of the matter would be that anyone who had been largely relying on correlation gets fucked during each of those periods of non-correlation because they might 1) fail to invest enough into bitcoin, or 2) they might sell too much too early.. part of the reason that bitcoin is really early in its adoption levels, and you get all kinds of folks thinking that they are smart when they sell on the way up but then the BTC price does another 5x to 10x after they sold.

Failing to buy sometimes gets folks not being sufficiently aggressive in their investment into BTC, getting scared to buy when it dips or even waiting for further dips.  Yeah, even newbies and whimpy investors may well end up profiting quite stupendously from being invested into BTC if they do not make major mistakes, and surely I consider the non-investment and under investment into bitcoin to be more dangerous than the over-investment, even though in this last cycle, we did get to witness plenty of examples of the mistakes on the other end in terms of over-investing into bitcoin in such a way that either leveraging was taking place or there was a certain expectation that BTC prices would not drop below certain price points (and the 200-week moving average was one of those price points that a lot of over-leveraged folks had used as their expectation of absolute BTC price bottom.. and we even witnessed examples of normies and newbies becoming vulnerable because they ended up relying on the good will of other folks over their bitcoin and they were either wanting to get yield from their bitcoin or they had not necessarily realized that they third parties were playing like degenerate gamblers with such yield products (but using their coins to engage in such gambling that was expecting the BTC price to NOT go below certain price points, such as the 200-week moving average. 

For sure, it is not completely clear how to protect oneself from those kinds of contagions in the space, and even if we might suggest that those are examples in which BTC's correlation/non-correlation to the stock market is muddied, ultimately, I still am going to assert that it is likely quite misleading to expect that BTC prices are correlated to equities and stocks.. even if there are a lot of otherwise smart people making those kinds of claims.  Good luck with those kinds of seemingly (and likely) inferior reliances.. since another thing those kinds of inferior reliances also tend to demonstrate (at least for me) that there is some level of failing/refusing to understanding the actual power (of non-correlation) that comes from a new innovative/disruptive/face-melting/paradigm-changing (peaceful wealth transferring) asset class, such as bitcoin.. even if there are a lot of times that "my lil precious" doesn't appear to be anything "special".. and those who buy into bitcoin seem to be delusional and pie-in-the-sky wishful thinkers.. which sure some of them are..... but should not take away from the foundational strengths that actually exist within what bitcoin actually is.