As far as I am concerned also, this is typically about Bitcoin, so everyone should stick their view to it to avoid irrelevance. Besides, Bitcoin has been well overestimated this year, particularly at the time that the market hit its first ATH of the year, that was when I knew it might not move above $35-37K this year and it has not disappointed me, not even for the fact that it was threatening to move more bullishly at that time of my first speculation. This is because there have not been so significant bullish movements before halving in the BTC's 4-year cycles, I don't believe this is the first time such a narrative would change. And as a matter of fact, much bearish impact might be felt before the strong bull run slated for 2024, which is why I know that BTC will comfortably be below $37K by the end of this year but might reach more than $150k in 2024-2025.

Now directly to your question about 30K, that is what we call a psychological level in the trading term and it often has its barriers even though the level is not the professional level that has stronger barriers now as I see now, it's just an approximation. The level that has the stronger resistance is $31450, and I also implore traders to watch out for $32,000 which is also psychological. And if you would agree with me, BTC has been so sluggish in movement immediately it crosses $30,000 upwards, and the only logical explanation for it is that there is a lack of willingness to buy further at that level (drop in demand/increase in supply). I'm afraid it might sustain this till the end of 2023.

I am not sure if I am saying that.

I am saying that shitcoins are frequently engaging in affinity scams, but they surely have rights to exist and none of us can stop them.  Also, you have rights to invest in whatever you want, whether it is actually investing or gambling.

However, I am also saying that if you are talking about bitcoin and shitcoins as if they are the same thing or similar things, you likely do not sufficiently know what bitcoin is, and also if you are talking about shitcoins in certain bitcoin threads on the forum, then you may well be either off topic or you are being vague in regards to what you are talking about... especially if you use vague an undefined terms such as "crypto" or "crypto currencies."


One of the main dynamics of an affinity scam may well be to attempt to profit from the efforts of the thing of value (here that is bitcoin) by either making it seems that you are similar to the thing of value, or that the thing of value has various defects that your shitcoin may well fix or address.


That happens too, and they likely are ONLY damaging themselves because they ended up getting clouded by bad experiences, and then falsely thinking that bitcoin is sufficiently similar (in their head) that they fail/refuse to either research into it or to invest into it.

psychologically it does make sense, just like it makes sense that some folks who sold too much of their bitcoin too soon, and then they are waiting for the BTC price to drop (and the BTC price does not end up dropping to their preference and/or expectations), then those people frequently become bitter about bitcoin largely because they had failed/refused to sufficiently understand bitcoin and/or they failed/refused to take a more reasonable and/or prudent investment approach into bitcoin, including that some people (or many people) end up getting screwed by their bitcoin exposure because they fail/refuse to take their own keys into custody (and it is not easy to manage your own bitcoin keys either... so surely it is understandable how some normies end up getting screwed in a variety of ways.. not ONLY because they got involved in shitcoins or they failed to learn about how to hold their own keys and to exercise such self-custody).


Yes... At the risk of being overly dogmatic... If we clarify what we are talking about, then it is not so bad to use some of the words that tend to be thrown around in various misleading and ambiguous ways, and crypto and crypto currencies are not the ONLY vague terms that are thrown around in terms of lacking clarity in regards to talking about bitcoin or some related project.. or maybe sometimes it is not even related bitcoin, but the use of the vague term might cause some people to wrongly presume that the thing being described is somehow related to bitcoin... which sure everything is likely related to bitcoin, but it still does not necessarily mean that we should be throwing out vague, meaningless and/or misleading terms when we are talking about bitcoin.


No there is nothing out there stopping BTC from going above $30k soon. .or maybe it won't?  

Who knows?  and how much does it (or should it) matter in terms of short-term?  

How can we know whether bitcoin will go up or that bitcoin will go down in the short term?  I doubt that we know.

Nonetheless, each of us continuously has some personal choices in regards to our own bitcoin stashes.  

Do we have enough bitcoin?  are we already sufficiently prepared for UP?

If not do we, buy more right now?  that is if we have any more money to buy BTC, or do we need to generate money in order to be able to buy more BTC at these prices?  Yes, money does not necessarily grown on trees, and frequently it takes time for normies to generate money through their labor or maybe other ways that they might have available to them.

Another possibility is to wait for a further dip?  that may or may not happen.  

Have we made plans for any possible dips from here?  What are the conditions in which we would buy more BTC and have we set aside money in case the BTC price drops more from here?

If not, are we prepare for up.. or just with the passage of time, regularly revisiting these kinds of questions, to the extent to which we might not already have an ongoing BTC buying plan in place that we are already following and tweaking the plan and the employment of such plan from time to time.


Whoops!!!  I misspoke, because I meant to say forum member, and I accidentally used the term WO member---

WO = is the "Wall Observer" thread, but I did not specifically mean to refer to that thread.. so maybe subconsciously I had written that reference as if I were writing inside of that thread.

Sure, there are some regular participants of the WO thread, who ONLY go to that thread in the forum, and there are some special rules to that thread, including that it is kind of treated as the forum's troll box... which is just a kind of like a "live chat" thread without exactly being that.. because these days, the thread does not receive enough posts to be an actual live troll box, and sure, all of the posts in the thread are kept to the extent that members do not delete their posts.

My first couple of years in the forum, I did not really venture outside of that thread, so my first posts of the forum were in that thread, and I kind of felt as if it was the ONLY thread that I could keep up with... but in the past few years, I have been increasingly going to other forum threads, too.

Anyone can participate in the WO thread. It surely is the forums longest thread, but not all forum members participate in the thread.. and probably any topic can be discussed there, so long as it is not getting into shitcoin pumping.. so it is generally a probitcoin thread. and maybe would be good to have more forum members participating in that thread (as long as they are not trying to pump shitcoins), even though a quite a few of the regular and longer term forum members do periodically go to that thread, even if they might not participate regularly in that thread.  There are some forum members who purposefully stay away from the WO thread, and sometimes will refer to that thread as a kind of cult.. hahahahahahaha.. whatever.. Peeps can believe whatever they like.


What I do is I keep one of my browser tabs opened to the watchlist, and then whenever I come back to the forum after a few hours or after a day or so, I will click refresh on that watch tab, and it will show me all of the lists that I am watching that have had new posts in the past 12 or so hours.  It does not necessarily show all of the new posts, so I will have to click on edit watchlist and then look at all of the threads that I am watching and to go through some of them to see if there had been any posts in that thread since the last time that I read my watchlist threads.

I do tend to put all of the threads that I have posted in on my watchlist and I will sometimes put other threads on my watchlist too because either I want to read them or I might want to post in them some day.. or perhaps refer back to the ones that I am watching.   I do tend to find it a bit easier to find threads that I am interested in that way, and there are ONLY a few kinds of forum threads that I always keep an open tab on my browser 1) WO thread (and maybe one or two other threads that I am wanting to keep active), 2) watchlist thread, 3) any thread that I need to read (or respond to.. such as I am not caught up), 4) my own merits thread (which allows me to keep tabs (updates) on recent merits sent and recent merits received), and 5) I generally keep BPIP open and run the BPIP Chrome/Firefox browser extension (which does have a link to the Ninja page.. which I might click on that Ninja link page from time to time).  

Generally speaking, that's currently my own system of trying to watch various forum threads.


I don't really use the tool specifically, except like I mentioned above, there is a BPIP chrome extension that also includes a Ninja link next to each members name.. and maybe I am using the various resources that are connected to the TryNinja resources from time to time.


You might be correct in many, if not most of your assessments of bitcoin's current price actions EarnOnVictor, yet it seems that you may well be placing too much weight into some of the technical analysis tools that likely fail in terms of their sufficiently/adequately accounting for bitcoin's not being a mature asset class, and in fact fail to sufficiently/adequately account for the various network effects and Metcalfe principles that contribute towards the likely ongoing UPpity BTC price pressures in terms of a kind of exponential s-curve adoption, so hopefully, you EarnOnVictor are sufficiently prepared to include those kinds of exponential s-curve adoption  dynamics into your own preparations, and not becoming overly smug in terms of possible lackenings in your own UPpity preparations (financially and/or psychologically)... even though, sure you might be right that the exponential component might end up playing out in relatively modest ways... perhaps? perhaps?

The first thing to know when you are coming to the cryptocurrency ecosystem is for you to understand what is BITCOIN because it is the king of all the cryptocurrencies in the space. What is Bitcoin when you have known this and also known other cryptocurrencies in the ecosystem such as Doge, Litecoin,  etc then you can be able to differentiate bitcoin with other cryptocurrencies and this is the first step to take as a forum user so that you can also tell other users who are not familiar in the cryptocurrency. I really appreciate JayJuanGee for his great explanations.

So far so good, shitcoins cannot spoiled the name of bitcoin again because bitcoin has gained ground in the world. And every corner of the world knows bitcoin even though they don't know the uses and usages bitcoin but they know bitcoin so it for you to tell them the differences if they want to know.

Bitcoin have gained ground no doubt but a good percentage of the world population are yet to embrace Bitcoin. Remember that government policies in some country slow down Bitcoin awareness and penetration.  So, I wouldn't say we are there yet as I still see Bitcoin as something that is making way into the mainstream.

Interestingly, a good number of businesses I know of are implementing Bitcoin payments and many are seriously considering same. As a matter of fact, I am also working on a project that will push this further in my locality and at a later date I will share details here for more suggestion and guidance.

Only naive people, lay people and people who don't understand standards equate bitcoin with shitcoin and this should be straightened out from the start and we may be able to tell the lay people but not the naive.

On the other hand, what I think now when we discuss about crypto then there will definitely be a sub discussion of bitcoin because bitcoin is one part of it but if we discuss about bitcoin then it is already specific as I said before so we cannot mix bitcoin with shitcoin.

That's the point, although maybe for some of us we might understand that but of course for most people it's going to be ambiguous in terms of terminology.
As for when talking about price speculation I won't say much considering I'm still enjoying this thing at its current price.
But only one thing is certain right now, sooner or later everything will change and all we have to do is wait and relax without thinking about fluctuations and buy if we have a purchase plan with the money we have.

You need to be careful about suggesting that people sell BTC at various price points - especially if you are suggesting that they would be "taking profits" by selling because there are a lot of people who have way too few bitcoin, and if they end up selling bitcoin too early and/or BTC price does not end up falling, the they may well end up screwing up and engaging in bad practices - including that this thread is not really about selling BTC to make profits, but instead investing in the long term, continuing to accumulate BTC, and perhaps down the road many more options could well be available due to a practice of primarily accumulating BTC over many years, even if there are UPs and downs along the way.  

We cannot necessarily know at which points most people are going to have had reached overly high levels of BTC accumulation that might make it prudent for them to shave off some BTC along the way, and maybe selling a low enough amount that they are not worried about if the BTC price never ends up dropping down so that they can buy BTC back from the proceeds of the BTC that they had sold...

Again, most people do not have enough BTC.. so it may well take a while before building up enough of a stash in which the BTC HODLer might be starting to fell that s/he owns too much BTC.

Another problematic area in which you are suggesting to sell around the time of the halvening, and sure maybe a BTC pump will come around the halvenings, but several times, it has taken several months before the supply constrains (that are a result of the halvening) are starting to be felt.. so for example in 2020, the halvening happened in May, and there was a bit of a prehalvening pump, and then there was a pump at the end of 2020, and then there was a pump in the beginning of 2021 and then there was a pump at the end of 2021.  So how are you going to know which pump and hopefully people do not sell too much too early, even though we know that many times there are folks who end up selling way too many BTC too soon.

Similar in 2012 and in 2016....there were several times in which the BTC price pumped quite a lot, but it kept pumping.. so some guys sold too much BTC too soon in each of those pumps, and then they end up having regrets about it. .including not knowing when to buy back and sometimes ending up buying back higher than their sell price.. and all kinds of weird things can happen when BTC HODLers sell way too many BTC too soon and speculate that they are going to be able to buy back cheaper but the BTC price ends up continuing to go up and they would have had been better off to not have had been fucking around with selling in the first place because they did not even have enough BTC in their investment portfolio.

Actually for some people selling some of their assets (bitcoin) and waiting at the bottom price might be possible but I think this cannot be recommended to everyone because obviously the risk is quite high when you sell some and hope to wait for the bottom price but bitcoin is difficult to predict like that what if it happens otherwise after selling bitcoin has increased.

I would prefer if you really want to wait not by selling your assets but looking for other alternatives in spending so that you can set aside for bitcoin.
It will be more worth it, apart from our safe portopolio on the other hand we can also still buy when bitcoin experiences a temporary decline and make our portopolio fatter.
That would be much better especially for those who do not really understand about analysis and only do based on the analysis and speculation of others.

When it comes to analyzing our own finances, each of us should be attempting to understand how to analyze our own portfolios and to figure out how much allocations that we want to attempt to achieve in each of the various categories, including setting our goals and figuring out each of our individual particulars.

Surely, some people do consult with financial advisors in order to help them with their finances, and figuring out how to set each of the categories, and then how to aim towards achieving their various financial goals that would also include attempting to accommodate an appropriate level of psychological comfort too.  The psychology and the finances likely feed off of one another, because if the finances are set in more comfortable ways, then more psychological comfort should accompany that.


One of the most valuable things that any of us can bring to the table in regards to any conversation is various aspects of our personal experiences, and then to attempt to describe how some of those personal experiences might contribute towards our perspective, assessments and opinions, but we have to also recognize and appreciate that we might be wrong about some of the aspects of our assessments of facts, logic, conclusions and maybe even various opinions and analysis, but we might not be wrong about our personal experiences, even though sometimes the personal experiences might not be very relevant to any conversation unless you figure out ways to include them into the discussion (to the extent that you are even willing to give up OPsec or even to describe personal experiences in such a way that might not give up too many OPSec kinds of details).

Let's say that you own right around 1 BTC, and you are proud that you have been able to accumulated so much wealth that is held in BTC, yet you don't necessarily want anyone to know that you own right around 1 BTC, and you might bring up the topic of how you have been diligently building your BTC portfolio over the past 4 years, and you have made some mistakes along the way, but overall you are happy that you have been able to accumulate your BTC for an average price that is less than $20k per BTC, so you are feeling quite good about that, yet at the same time, you expect that you are still going to need to continue to focus on accumulating BTC for the next 10 years in order to either reach your accumulation goals and/or for BTC prices to continue to go up enough that you start to feel comfortable that your BTC accumulation levels might allow you to be able to discontinue working - if that might be a goal of yours... so maybe your goal is to try to double your current BTC holdings in the next 10-15 years, and even though you are not sure about it, you might be able to engage in some kinds of specific discussions without necessarily giving away too many of the specifics... but maybe talking in terms of strategies, or percentages... and maybe you could bring up some examples of dollar amounts or BTC amounts and perhaps use hypotheticals in order to attempt to make your points.. including that some of the hypothetical examples might kind of look like your own situation.. or they might be 1/10 smaller than your situation or maybe 10x larger than your situation. or some other multiple that you choose to employ.

You may or may not need to get into revealing details in order to be able to frame your story in such a way that outlines some of your goals and how they might relate to BTC or how they might relate to any discussion that is going on.


Sure the WO OP has some relevance, but also the WO OP might be misleading.. in terms of the WO thread and some of its history... including that the person who created the thread (AdamstgBit) had largely ended up losing his account in late 2016 or early 2017, but he did not try to get his account back because he was having a bit of a pissy-fit with theymos and even turned into a BIG blocker nutjob, so at one point in around early 2017, theymos shut down the thread, which caused a lot of forum members to get upset and to petition the forum/theymos to reopen the thread and so after a couple of weeks of the thread being closed we ended up electing a new thread owner, which is how InfoFont became the owner of the thread...

Sure there is some history in that thread that may or may not matter, and there were various reasons for wanting to shut down the thread, and even changes in some of the rules of the thread based on some of its historical context.. .including that even before the thread had shut down, it was already being treated as a kind of "almost anything goes - except pumping shitcoins" troll box of the forum..

What people actually do, and what I believe that they should do (for their own good) may well be two different stories, as you suggested. 

There are really smart people who have hardly any clues about how to manage their own finances, and surely there are people who engage in mediocre management of their finances because for sure they have to get used to paying their monthly bills, and if they want to save money on overdraft fees and even exceeding their credit limit, then they should be trying to figure out ways to live within their means, and to manage their income in such a way that they have enough money that they do not suffer from penalties.. but surely people do end up paying a lot of penalties, and then just figure that is the cost of the way that they live when they sometimes want some things that they cannot afford right away.

Yes, we all know these kinds of people and there are likely more basic ways to improve their management of their finances, and there are likely more advanced ways to improve their management of their finances.

People who are more able to aggressively invest and even to aggressively invest into bitcoin (without devolving into gambling practices) likely have pretty good ideas about various aspects of their finances and their cashflow.. including having cushions within their budget too.

Even wealthy people may not manage their finances very well, but they also likely have either a greater income or just a lot more wealth to draw upon if they end up screwing things up... so maybe they keep an emergency fund that is like $100k that they can dip into whenever they are screwing up their monthly cashflows, and then they might have other sources in which they can replenish their $100k reserve fund in the event that their cash flows are not sufficiently covering their monthly expenses.

Even with myself, when I first started in bitcoin in late 2013, I was attempting to be quite meticulous with the various ways that I was buying and keeping track of matters, but after a few years of doing that, there were times in which I felt that I had a much greater financial (and therefore psychological) cushion to be able to not worry so much if I might be paying higher fees, so long as the amount of the various gains were covering the fees, then sure the gains might have had been less, but there were times that I just engaged in ballparking kinds of practices because I could still see that generally speaking, the gains were quite a bit greater than the fees, so then it was worth the behavior to pay high fees because the gains were greater.

So, I suppose part of my point is that a lot of people would likely be advantaged by figuring out their finances better, and maybe some folks who had been failing/refusing to invest into anything beyond maybe their personal residence and their 401k plan would be able to start to invest into other things, such as bitcoin, and the more that they get their shit together in terms of figuring out their various finances, the more aggressive investment tactics that they are going to be able to employ into bitcoin without necessarily devolving into gambling behaviors.

I have no dauth that some investors don't really know the meaning of bitcoin and what crypto currency is all about, as bitcoin is the leading crypto in the market that's why investors are hoping in to make good profits in future, some investors don't know how Bitcoin works that why when they invest they just think that all of a sudden their investment will profit them in just a minute, if an investor can understand Bitcoin very well he will know that to profit big on Bitcoin he have to hold he's asset's for a long period of time so that he can accumulate enough coins before he sell.