<<  >> (p.102)
    Author Topic: Buy the DIP, and HODL!  (Read 192860 times)
    JayJuanGee
    Legendary
    *
    Online Online

    Activity: 4158
    Merit: 12636


    Self-Custody is a right. Say no to "non-custodial"


    View Profile
    May 05, 2023, 03:03:30 PM
     #2021

    Historically in bitcoin, in a year's time, there are always dips, even if the year happens to be a bullrun year - however, I probably agree with both you ginsan and with RewFrew (you guys don't seem to be saying anything much different from one another), that there may well be times in which whatever dip that we are experiencing might end up being all the dip that we are going to end up getting, and the dip might not end up getting any lower than the current price.. yet when we are in such situations, we are hardly ever really going to have a lot of realistic and accurate information to conclusively know if the BTC price is going to dip any further within this streak (correction) or not.
    That is the volatility in Bitcoin DCA value, its always unstable and there is the possibility to have a bear market and a bull market in the same cycle let's say in the 1-year range we see multiple times when Bitcoin change its direction in price and this has been the market sentiment over the years and that is not going to change since it the nature of the market, bitcoin is designed to remain volatile in price and that is what makes it a speculative asset.
    I don't really disagree with anything that you are saying Odusko in regards to both the advantages of DCA and the difficuties to figure out BTC price directions during short timelines; however, I may had misspoken a little bit in terms of whether I consider it to be realistic or even meaningful to be labelling switches from bullmarket (or bullcycle) in terms of short-term BTC price happenings, and in that regard, I refuse to accept some of the traditional market assessments regarding what is considered to be bull or bear markets, and largely so far in bitcoin's history, price cycles have tended to play out in four year periods, and it can be quite difficult to know (or to have solid conviction) whether a bottom (or a top) is in, and frequently we are not going to really know until quite far down the road, so there is a bit of a lagging indication regarding whether the bear market is over or the bull market is over.. ..
    I respect the views of you guys, however, let me ship my little idea.

    Many assume a lot with Bitcoin psychology, while many are just lucky with their assumptions at times, but still, there are good speculators that don't do that. I am such that believes in not just calling Dump, Pump, or Hodl without a basis for it. It might depend on the angle at which one looks at the market through the tradition/theory/cycle they believe in, but the market will remain the market, and Bitcoin is not an exception so far it's charted. This is why we will always be seen the bottom, peak, and sideways (neutral) in every market including Bitcoin and it might be for either short, medium or long-term, it doesn't market.

    That said, there is a basis to knowing these levels and conditions, particularly on the chart, and as an experienced speculator, I know when there are short, medium and long-term actions whether it's to buy, sell or pause the action. And if anyone doesn't want to believe that it's possible, then it's a choice but has been guiding all professional traders around the world.

    The market has its psychology, and the psychology could be known under careful studies, while the approach used matters too. And presently, on the long-term view, Bitcoin has bottomed at $15,413 (November 2022's low), it's all bullish now unless it slips below the level. Elliot wave theory, Fibonacci and Trendline studies on both the weekly and monthly charts confirmed it. 'You can take my word for it.'
    .
    Bitcoin will not meet that quoted bottom in the next 2 years. Speculative analysis may not be perfect and also be viewed as a possibility, but when it has been successfully guiding someone with about 85-95% accuracy, then it's worth using.

    It sounds to me as if you are trying to sell some kind of a trading package, and the vast majority of longer term HODLers in bitcoin do way better by erroring on the side of buying and accumulating rather than trading.

    Yeah, sure it is possible to be profitable with trading and it is even more likely that positions can be bolstered by attempting to buy more when the BTC price is down; however, it way more likely that normies are going to do way worse in their BTC accumulation (and therefore future profits) if they fuck around with trading... beyond maybe some minor attempts to buy more during dip periods...and erroring on the side of mostly just regular and persistent buying and accumulating of BTC and increasing their wealth (or likely wealth) through such ongoing, regular and persistent accumulating/buying efforts.

    1) Self-Custody is a right.  Resist being labelled as: "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
Page 101
Viewing Page: 102