High volatility does not automatically mean high risk.  

In my comment to lizarder, I was likely quibbling in regards to his use of absolute terms in regards to suggesting that in the long term bitcoin does not have risk, so I was presenting some scenarios in which bitcoin spiraling downward would constitute risks that could happen, even if it is a low probability of such spiraling to zero to happen, but it is not a zero probability as lizarder's comment would have suggested.

Accordingly, I largely agree with lizarder's point that bitcoin is likely on an upward trajectory in the long term, and also your assertion that bitcoin is going to continue to be quite highly volatile along the way, but I would not conclude that bitcoin is "high risk" - because any of us should be able to off-set our own level of risk by position size and also tailing our accumulation and holding of BTC to our own personal circumstances.  In other words, we could contribute towards bitcoin becoming high risk in the way that we structure our buys, especially if we fail/refuse to sufficiently/adequately account for bitcoin's seemingly inevitable ongoing high volatility.

There are a lot of people who likely perceive bitcoin to be high risk due to its high volatility, but they also deem bitcoin to be high risk because they either do not know what it is and/or they believe the bullshit misinformation that is propagated about it.


I agree with you here.


I tend to NOT like the examples of the guy who bought at or near all time high, and then just sits on his hands for a number of years, even though I understand the point that you are making Inwestour, which is that even those BTC purchases that were made at or near all time high have decently good chances of becoming profitable in the coming 5-10 years.. and perhaps (likely I would suggest) they will even be profitable in light of the likely ongoing decreasing value of the dollar (or whatever other fiat currency that you might be using as your measurement).  

Another consideration is that if someone had started buying BTC with a DCA approach at or near the ATH in mid-November 2021, then that person would still be in profits right now. For example someone buying $100 per week starting from mid-November 2021 have spent a total of $8,500, and s/he would have 0.3352 BTC - which would have a current market spot price value of $10,125 (based on a current BTC price of $30k), and the longer that the person has been in bitcoin, then the more likely that the amount of profits would be higher.  Of course, no guarantees in regards to how the long to medium term is going to play out, but there is a lot of value that seems to come from consistently buying BTC, even if there might be some lump sum investing and buying on dips that complement a DCA approach that focuses on ongoing accumulation over the long term. and perhaps even some moderation in the BTC buying approach in order to NOT overly extend yourself in regards to continuing to want to account for your own expenses, including potential emergency expenses.. which everyone likely has from time to time.

It's a decently good example, and it even shows that BIG players will frequently have to go through a kind of process in which it takes time to become profitable, even when MSTR/Saylor started out as profitable with his first purchases for himself and for his company to be in the $10k price territory.. but they continued to buy, and even bought really large amounts in the $50k arena.. which surely brought their costs per BTC up a lot.


In regards to lessening or stopping your buys when the BTC price is above $30k, I am not sure if that specific idea is good - even though surely there can be some value in terms of buying more BTC on price dips and perhaps buying less BTC when it surges up in price a lot.. but then there becomes a question regarding whether the current price (or above $30k should be considered a surge, or what might be a fair characterization of supra $30k prices these days).  

Buying on dips is good and perhaps you can try to strategize in order to not be buying on the extreme price rises and then just waiting for further dips; however, if the price goes above certain price points, and then does not end up dipping sufficiently to satisfy your later "buys on dips", then what are you going to do?  especially if you might have cash regularly coming in, then where are going to put that extra cash?  just let it build up?  or maybe you end up panic buying at much higher prices?  Maybe you allow your cash reserves to build up to a certain point and then rethink the matter?  that would not be a bad approach.

In the end, you are the person who is in the best position to figure out how to deal with your own BTC portfolio and to figure out the extent to which you have enough BTC.. and whether it matters if some of your BTC purchases continue to be higher than previous buys.

Part of the ongoing measure of bitcoin's value has to do with the bottom ongoingly moving up with the passage of time, and personally I consider the 200-week moving average to be a very good bottom indicator, even though we did have some unprecedented times in which it was breached for considerable amounts of time in the last year-ish.  

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/

So in terms of BTC value, $30k now is not the same as $30k one year ago, and currently we are barely above the 200-week moving average, which is now at $26,665. For sure, there are no guarantees that the 200-week moving average will continue to serve a decently good bottom indicator, so you have to come to your own determinations regarding whether you believe that you need to slow down your DCA and/or your BTC accumulation based on current prices, with perhaps overly greedy thoughts that you might be able to buy cheaper.. and surely you might not be able to because bitcoin tends to be a very good buy when it is at below or even within 20-30% of the 200-week moving average.  

For example, in May/June 2022 when a lot of the disasters of our then over-leveraged  (and gambling scamming twats) were being revealed, the 200-week moving average was ONLY in the $21k to $22k price arena, so if you thought that buying below $30k was a good value, in May/June 2022, $30k would have had been around 40% above the then 200-week moving average, and currently $30k is ONLY around 12.5% above the 200-week moving average.

So you are in dangerous (and maybe even out of touch irrational territories?) if you are wedding yourself (and your ideas) to strict thinkings of absolute BTC price thresholds (like $30k) rather than attempting to consider your price thresholds in terms of a somewhat more solid bottom indicator, which I would consider the 200-week moving average to be decently good (even though moving target) of a solid bottom (good value) indicator.

In the end, you seem to be assigning higher odds than me that bitcoin could go to zero, but hey, I am not even confident in my own method of assigning any kind of a tangible number and trying to figure out potential attack vectors (or reasons that bitcoin might go to zero), and I am not even sure if it is necessary to outline a variety of scenarios beyond acknowledging that there is some kind of a non-zero chance that bitcoin could end up either going to zero or even going into a kind of marginal status that it does not continue to attract value to it.. beyond a niche group of people.

Easy to say buying dip by top coins but It's not to easy way. You have to extraordinary idea about crypto for buying dip and sold out high. Every top coins has there own power price so how i gonna to taken zero value? So maybe best idea to make trade sylow by top coins but for that you have to skills smart trader.

Very well said indah rezqi.  It is possible to prepare for both (either) BTC price directions at the same time and even extremes, including that we should be putting less preparations into lower probability events, even though we should attempt to prepare for even extremes and what we consider to be lower probability events, and a lot of people seem to have difficulties with those kinds of ideas that allow for the preparation for a large number of scenarios, including what we consider to be lower probability events while at the same time, not overly focusing or preparing for such lower probability events.


Fuck shitcoins.  We are only talking about bitcoin in this thread.  

All other coins have decently high odds of going to zero, so you cannot use the same kinds of investment strategies when dealing with shitcoin (including all altcoins, ethereum or whatever happens to be your other favorite shitcoin).. and sure if you want to debate about the value of shitcoins or which shitcoin might be less shitty, then you need to take that to some other thread.. because there are some shitcoin believers, even in this forum, and they have threads for their discussions regarding which shitcoin is less shitty.


You may be correct, but you may have blinders on.

There is a non-zero chance that bitcoin could go to zero, and surely it is not easy to figure out how high of odds that should be, but we also have the Lindy effect going on with bitcoin, which also contributes to its likely ongoing continuance to exist and that it becomes less likely to go to zero the longer that it exists.

It is a pattern of strategy that must be thought of early on.  where when the price drops, let's say the price drops more aggressively than the existing influences, whether it's a war or a fall such as FTX or Terra Luna which has quite a big impact on market movement situations, then that's when we will move to buy with the reserve funds that we have prepared early on. May happen in the future or not but for sure we have to have a strong budget stock in case of something like that.

Indeed, in the last 10 years we have seen many big impacts that have prevented Bitcoin from moving forward, both from the government or the Fud, where they developed a neater strategy to bring down the price of Bitcoin. But also in the last 10 years we have seen that Bitcoin is too strong and is able to return significant price strength year after year. Therefore we are not too worried about strange things and we will always be ready to take advantage of this opportunity to buy Bitcoin within the capabilities of our budget. Well one other thing there is no aggressive plan for us in accumulating Bitcoin because the budget must be adjusted according to the level of needs in daily life and the level of the budget that must be used to invest.

Wise spending and high profit investment strategy for you to buy only below 30k. With this strategy,you will be  limited to accumulate your target investment portfolio faster compare to someone that is using DCA method and buying in dip because whatever financial status he find himself,either with steady cash inflow or monthly or not. Do you mean that if you have a good business that gives you good profit,you will only rely on buying as you planned ? I believe that a time might come in the near future when bitcoin price dip will be above 30k,i.e it will never get to 30k before it will pump back maybe in 10yrs time,are you not going to increase the price of your buying price range. Try and look at it from the other side that as long as you still have plans to reach your target bitcoin portfolio investment that you should use different methods to keep on accumulating your bitcoin based on the rate of cash inflow at that moment. However buying dip is the most profitable strategy from my own understanding but it is a slow method compare to using both dca and buying dip,as long as you have other means of survival.

Current Bitcoin price on $30,400 and seems its lower or dip price from bitcoin left 2023 before halving time? I am still confused for investing in bitcoin right now or waiting with another dip come because last several days looks Bitcoin can stable price. Not easy for analyzing when bitcoin price dip for holding until raise to higher price, many outside factor can make bitcoin suddenly up and down make us worth for scalping buy the dip then hold and sell later when price up.

Possibility or not for Bitcoin return back below $30,000 due halving time almost close, I don't have ideas what have to do right now between reinvesting or sell and buy back later when bitcoin has chance back to lower price.

I have been investing in bitcoin for a bit more than 9.5 years, and it seems to me that bitcoin is performing in a way that is better than I anticipated at the time that I came into bitcoin, given all world events and all that was attempted to be speculated at the time that I got into bitcoin.   Sure, I was somewhat aware of a variety of discussions of various upside scenarios for bitcoin, even trajectories for million dollar bitcoin "someday."  Nonetheless, it seems hard to really argue that bitcoin has not already been successful and continues to be successful, rather than suggesting that it could have had been even more successful than it has been - since it has supposedly been held down.  I would imagine that any of us getting into bitcoin around 10 years ago, would have expected that there might have had been some battles along the way, and overall it seems that bitcoin has fared pretty damned well in the whole scheme of things - maybe even better than a lot of less good or even bearish scenarios that could have had played out - instead of what has already happened, which is quite amazing if you really attempt to think about it from the perspective of someone who might have had been getting in 10 years ago.. rather than whining that bitcoin could have done better than it already has done... What do you expect?  straight up to $1 million from zero (or $100) without a few battles along the way?

In regards, to its future performance, it seems that the investment thesis for bitcoin gets stronger with the passage of time, rather than weaker - even if there is likely to be less upside (as compared with the last 10 years).. but even if there is less upside, the solidness or strength of any investment should be considered in terms of both its upside and its downside, which continues to suggest bitcoin is amongst the best of current investments that anyone can make (is available to anyone with lesser barriers to entrance in comparison to other kinds of investment possibilities -  and sure there are some learning investment barriers that anyone will have to try to figure out in terms of their own personal circumstances).


This is a dilemma that each person has, and it seems to me that if you don't have enough bitcoin, then you have to keep stacking and you need to combine DCA, buying on dips and lump sum to the best of your abilities in accordance with your own circumstances which are considering your cashflow, how much bitcoin you have already accumulated, your other investments (including cash reserves), your view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and your time, skills, goals (investment/lifestyle targets, which includes figuring out the extent that you are in BTC accumulation, maintenance or liquidation stage) and your abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments.

No one can tell you how to figure out each of your circumstances, including what are the likelihoods that the BTC price might dip or maybe we will never see lower prices ever again.. it is difficult to know, but it is still possible to be prepared for either (and both at the same time) scenario.


We are not talking about selling BTC in order to accumulate in this thread, and if your goal is to accumulate BTC, it is generally not a good idea to sell BTC in order to attempt to buy back lower.  If you are trying to accumulate BTC the better of strategies are to ongoingly buy it in various ways until you reach certain targets of high accumulation, profits and perhaps even having your shit together in regards to a variety of ways that you have value stored in a variety of places (I am not referring to having value in shitcoins)...

If you want to talk about fucking around with selling BTC to buy back lower (as if that were a good strategy.. I have my doubts), then take that nonsense somewhere else.. I know a lot of people engage in such gambling dumbness as if they were investing (and building wealth), but that's not what we are talking about in this thread.


You are correct that there are likely some strategies that MSTR/Saylor can employ that you are not able to employ until you have a sufficient diversification of assets and also cashflow too.

You might be able to still employ similar strategies as MSTR/Saylor, but surely it tends to not be a good idea (or even necessary) to employ even close to as much leverage as MSTR/Saylor seem to be employing in order to be successful, and one of the great advantages of bitcoin continues to be that it is such a great asymmetric bet to the upside that you really don't even need to employ a lot of capital in order to potentially profit stupendously from investing into it..  Of course, the more aggressive you are (without over doing it), then the better that your asymmetric bet to the upside has potential to pay off.. .. but each person has to be careful not to overstep his/her own personal boundaries in terms of making sure that s/he has enough money to cover all expenses, including emergency expenses, and sure some people might choose to deprive themselves of various pleasures because they want to be somewhat aggressive in their bitcoin investment amounts, but they also might find themselves regretting their level of sacrifice in the event that bitcoin does not end up performing as well as they had been hoping it to perform - because of course, even though there is an asymmetric bet to the upside in regards to BTC investing, the outcome of UPwardly movement (whether talking short, medium or long term) is not guaranteed.


Thanks for clarifying.   That sounds like a pretty strong, reasonable and prudent strategy. 

For example, as cash is coming in, sometimes there can be times in which we might have $300 per month extra coming in (that we are able to invest into bitcoin and that we can differ investing it right away), and then all of a sudden one month, there might end up coming in an additional $3k that comes in, and then we might be faced with a kind of dilemma in regards to how to allocate that extra income that came in that we had not expected.  So there might be ways that we try to be flexible in order to account for some new circumstances, and maybe when the extra money comes in, we might end up dividing that money into various parts rather than just employing it into one category, and the three parts that I like to think about in terms of how to divide such money in regards to possible bitcoin purchases are:  DCA, buying on dips and lump sum... we could divide the extra $3k into 1/3 each.. $1k for each category. .or we could allocate however we believe better helps our own particulars that might not end up being 1/3 each but instead weighted in one area or another that we might have believed that we had been previously deficient in terms of our own bitcoin or fiat allocations.


Fair enough.  So of course, each of us should realize that the BTC price might fall below $30k, but it might not.. and it may never again fall below $30k.. we have to be prepared for either scenario and of course give the scenarios the weight that we believe is most appropriate to our view of matters, and none of us is going to be 100% correct, and maybe we do not need to be 100% correct, if we design our own set ups in such a way that we really do not need to be correct, and there are thresholds that cause us to buy or cause us to engage in other tactics, such as allowing our fiat to build up.. just like you mentioned..

Yeah.. wait for your lower price (referring to armanda90).

That may or may not end up happening..  then you end up FOMOing in at $50k because you really wanted to buy, but you were too greedy to do it right away.. and you don't even have to buy all of it right away.. but hey people have to make their own decisions, and we have seen a lot of examples historically of guys who were waiting for a lower price an then they become bitter because they failed to buy and they thought for sure that they were right about a lower price was going to happen, and such lower price did not end up happening.