All of this seems to be true.. and at the same time, the best that we can attempt to know is our own current budget, and to attempt to figure out how aggressive that we might want to be.. whether we make our evaluations in the amount of bitcoin that we accumulate or the goals that we set or we attempt to evaluate the dollar value of that accumulation or some kind of a combination.

I think that at the same time, we should be able to plot out a variety of possible BTC accumulation scenarios in order to attempt to have various aims that might show how our valuation of those various BTC accumulation scenarios might play out depending on our own cashflow circumstances, how well (and aggressive) that we might be in our BTC accumulation within such projected future scenarios and surely changes in the BTC price along the way will both affect how many BTC we are able to accumulate in a certain period of time and how it is valued (in dollars) at various points in the journey.

I like to create Excel spreadsheets to project scenarios, and from time to time, I can either update the Excel spreadsheets or change scenarios or change the name (maybe just by keeping the same name, but including the date in the name).. so that I am able to go back and look at some of my earlier projections as compared to how my current BTC accumulation is going and how the price changes might have affected how it actually looks in a specific way as compared with how I had projected it to be at earlier points of time, whether i go back at certain low points in the BTC price in the past or high points or even a few years versus going back for nearly 9 years (and surely I have some of similar kinds of cashflow projections prior to my including bitcoin into those projections, so I can see pre-bitcoin versus after including bitcoin too).

No one really can know how it will play out. or even whether goals might be exceeded or underperformed in various ways, and personally, I think that I tended to try to be conservative in a variety of my projections, and even though I considered myself to be modestly assertive and persistent in regards to my BTC accumulation, but still at the same time, I have various locations in history in which I know that mistakes were made.. but at the same time, I can see that some of those mistakes caused set backs, but they were not as overwhelmingly damaging as sometimes they might feel at the time when they are made.. while at the same time, there can be ways in which mistakes are made. and it cannot be exactly clear regarding if things could have been done differently, if I had thought that I was already engaging in a kind of good practices.. and surely I feel lucky for NOT making even BIGGER mistakes that I know some others had made along the way that contribute to their later being bitter and resentful regarding mistakes that they could have been more careful in avoiding.


I believe that you have the right idea Sim_card, but I would still frame the matter differently.

Sure, some of the diversification could come from selling a certain amount of bitcoin, but it also could just end up being a kind of tapering of some of the cashflow into other areas in order to get some price exposure to other areas, whether it might be stocks, or property or to some business or some other kind of way that a person might want to try to ensure that not all of his investment is ONLY in bitcoin.

I doubt that i was ever of the view that I should sell all of my bitcoin, but there were points in time in which I had gotten down to 85% bitcoin and 15% cash that was in my investment portfolio (when I started in bitcoin, I already had a bunch of other investments that largely related to various kinds of index stock funds, property and business matters.. so I did sometimes calculate in terms of what value I had allocated to bitcoin.. and sometimes within that part of my investment portfolio, I would consider bitcoin and cash.. and so there were always some cash reserves)..

So initially when I projected out my bitcoin strategy, I had considered that I would sell more bitcoin as the price went up as the BTC price was going up, but as the BTC price went up, I became increasingly reluctant to sell a lot of it, which surely can end up with some regrets or difficulties when the BTC price corrects 70% or more.... but I still figured out some ways to try to be comfortable with continuing to mostly hold BTC and not to be selling a lot of it, even though I knew that I would suffer in the valuations when the price went down.. which still is the case today when I still hold way over 95% of the BTC allocated funds in BTC and quite less than 5% in cash that would be for buying on dips. or even some kind of a DCA application.

It may not be very clear in the earlier days of BTC accumulation how to play the holdings of BTC or even how much BTC that you might want to sell on the way up in order to accomplish more diversification in your overall investment portfolio or maybe you just start to channel cashflow to those other areas, and likely you would end up tailoring whatever you end up doing to your own specific circumstances, that would be more informed upon your entertaining those questions at the time that you are ready to start to employ them which might end up playing out a bit differently from what you initially had planned to do.. and I am not even suggesting not making a plan.. it is likely good to have a plan that you make early on and then to either follow through with it exactly or to tweak it in various places along the way in order to hopefully account for your having more and better information that you will be able to specifically act upon at a later date.

You may well be saying the same thing as me.. just that you had said it differently, so I am not even suggesting that you are not already thinking in a similar direction as me on this topic of how to manage the portfolio at a later date down the road.


I think that it is true that if you end up accumulating bitcoin early on, and you continue to study bitcoin, and you might set some early BTC accumulation goals, and sure maybe they are easy or difficult, but as you accumulate more bitcoin, you might come up with more and more ways and more and more reasons to accumulate more BTC in such ways that you end up accumulating more BTC than you had initially thought that you had wanted to accumulate.. and so if you do end up engaging in those kinds of behaviors, you still have to likely ONGOINGLY make sure that you are comfortable with what you had chosen to do.. both financially and psychologically.. even if there might be some wee bits of discomfort that comes with  any kind of potentially aggressive approach or over accumulation approach but hopefully not so much aggressiveness or over accumulation that you cross the line into gambling rather than investing.. and it is not always clear how far that you are able to go without crossing the line.


I agree and it is best when the conviction is coming from within yourself, even if you might rely on some information from others and some reinforcement, but ultimately you have to figure out your own balance because no one is going to give any shits about you if you fuck up.. except for yourself.. and you are responsible for those decisions, and the same is true for the no coiners, the low coiners and those who chose to be overly whimpy in their approach to BTC.. some of the whimpy ones will come along later.. and each of us has to figure out our own balance, and many of us bitcoiners already realize that there are a lot of folks who are way under allocated to bitcoin because they ongoingly and persistently continue to get off of zero.. and they may well end up regretting their lack of taking action down the road.. who knows? who knows?  Maybe they will end up being right?  hahahahahaha .. I doubt it, but you never know for sure.. that's the thing about taking risks and figuring out a comfortable allocation level in order that you can still live with your situation (financially and psychologically) if the investment thesis of bitcoin ends up not playing out even close to as great as you thought it would and even in a negative direction..


Yep.. we have to be careful NOT to have to be forced to sell any (or all) of our bitcoin at a time that is not completely of our own choosing, and for sure the March 2020 scenario did force a lot of weak hands into selling BTC and perhaps even selling more than they would have had preferred to have sold - because it is may well be possible that they well never get those BTC back.  That is one of the examples to have reserves and maybe even excessive reserves.. and if bitcoin is serving as your reserve, then you may well be over-allocated to bitcoin.. in a kind of way that does not make a lot of sense... but you do not know until the situation comes and then you end up panicking... and those kinds of situations are not easy, even for highly convicted bitcoiners to either HODL or to buy more or if they have to sell.. to sell as little as possible... and each person will have to be responsible for the level of extreme dire that s/he had put himself into by those kinds of outrageous and extreme scenarios that sometimes end up playing out in the real world rather than the world that had been imagined the the delusional investor who invested too much.


You are exactly right Greyhats that diversification might not really count very much if it is not spread into different kinds of asset classes, or at least attempted to be spread into non-correlated asset classes.

One of our current economic problems have become that so many asset classes are so much tied into dollar/debt systems that a lot of them are going to end up seeming like they are getting fucked at various points when the dollar gets fucked...

but at the same time, the dollar might be a piece of shit, it still has value flowing into it from various other fiat systems that are even in worse situations.. and I am not even proclaiming to realize how it is all going to play out, but still other fiats do end up flowing into the dollar and a lot of the incentive systems of the free market are hard to read because of the various perversions of the various debt systems around the world.

Another diversification mistake that people make is their believing that their investing into shitcoins is diversifying, when the overwhelming majority of shitcoins are tied to the performance of bitcoin, so the diversification is likely not real at all.. and if anyone believe that they should by some shitcoins in order to "diversify" then at least if they try to minimize the number of shitcoins that they buy, then they can at least acknowledge that they are not really diversifying into any other different industry or not as much as some folks might want to proclaim them to be accomplishing by buying various shitcoins.. merely because they are easy to buy and might not be very easy to exit.. when the shit hits the fan (or at times that you might want to exit them).

Well, in this case at least you already have a target and of course it's still very good to do. but of course with the condition of human nature with our dissatisfaction with something, I think you can still continue with ambition if you really want to.
You can do that target for the start but when it's achieved, then what? Life still goes on and we still have to keep writing history for ourselves so there needs to be a new target for that. Even though greed is not very good, of course there are new targets to be achieved when your old targets are exceeded so that with that we can reconsider for the next step.
I also didn't want to go too far at first because my focus was only on buying a little and focusing on my savings but after that I realized and now I'm trying to want more and for that I still DCA again and again for now while watching conditions also for utilization when the price is below for my current goals.

It might not be much, but I believe after the next bull cycle is over, most of the new entrants will obviously have a harder time in owning one whole Bitcoin because it would be too expensive. It would probably not be lower than the last ATH.

Although, there might be more golden opportunities to come.

 

The Federal Reserve and other Central Banks of the world have printed so much paper money, "FREE MONEY", for more than 10 years, pumping the economy, that it makes everyone more reckless. But with the aggressive tightening and the rate hikes, there might be hard landings in many regions of the world coming, and this will make assets DIP including Bitcoin.

Yes it will be very difficult to have one bitcoin when it has exceeded the next ATH cycle while the lowest price will not be as low as last year's price so you can imagine how difficult it will be for them to achieve that, but it will take a yearly process to reach 1 Bitcoin.

Human nature is always different, for example if they already have 0.5 BTC and when the price is expensive then they will definitely sell it because they see a high value, whereas people who want to achieve the goal of 1 BTC must be consistent throughout their long journey, I know some people are salaried the price is not that big so they will only set aside lower than what is expected.

Still, the golden opportunity is now not waiting, buy dip now if you have lots of money.

Absolutely correct,price of bitcoin and the value in dollars can be a big barrier for one to accumulate the actual number of bitcoin in a given period of time but nevertheless, as long as you stay focus and keeping on accumating,you will surely achieve your bitcoin goal. What matters most is your patience and understanding of the present scenario in your bitcoin journey.

Yea,this is the problem that some investors fails to get right, that investing in shitcoin is not diversifying into a different form of assets,rather you are gambling with your investment because shitcoins will definitely depreciate to zero value if you dare try to hold for long. They think because it is easy to buy and it is a cryptocurrency that it has the same potential with bitcoin,and the worst of it is that they will even go to the extend of selling some fraction of their bitcoin for shitcoins. The aftermath will bring regrets to these kind of people at the end of the day,because they lack the concrete knowledge on bitcoin and investment diversification

You are extremely right,for one to be able to hold for long no matter the challenges that come ahead of us,one must be prepared financially and pyscologically. You must plan or create a venue for cash inflow,so that you don't deviate from your target which is either to continue accumulating or to stop the accumulation for awhile but hold strong till the right time comes again,when you feel that you have overcome the cash inflow obstacle to start accumulating again. There must be a balance in your cash inflow and your bitcoin accumulation base on your various means of income to make sure that you don't rush out of cash and won't go to your portfolio during the dip, no matter the circumstances on ground. Because if you lack cash and see your bitcoin investment as the only alternative, you will end up selling at lost and this can even make you give up on your bitcoin investment.

There is no doubt that human nature varies from person to person, however the decision to sell Bitcoin holdings is not solely driven by market conditions or desire to book gains, there are many other factors those can influence our decision making, such as long term goals, financial situation and  risk tolerance level. The history has demonstrated it consistently that long term HODLERS of Bitcoin are always at advantage, therefore, in stead of booking small gains, wait for the bull cycle to relaize significant profit.

Yes you are correct, the price of Bitcoin can change and that determines how many Bitcoins we can collect in a given period and what its value (in dollars) will be at different times along the way.  The amount of Bitcoin we collect and its dollar value in a given period may vary, depending on changes in the price of Bitcoin.  If the price of bitcoin increases, we can collect more bitcoins and its dollar value increases.  Conversely, if the value of Bitcoin falls, we will collect fewer Bitcoins and the dollar value of the collection will decrease.  Hence, the stability of Bitcoin price

I think thats actually the first thing that should come to light with anyone who is currently planning on starting an investment be it bitcoin or any other type, because you can afford to invest more than what you don't have and especially if its a long term investment it is going have a great toll on you that might result in you tempering with your investment or selling of a portion of it because of the pressure of not having enough funds to keep yourself sustained, so I will prefer before going in for an investment plan one should properly evaluate all the necessary risk involved and know the capability of his or herself because tangling yourself all in the name of saving up some stacks.


Its better to go for an active plan where you can be able buy a little fraction of BTC or save up something from your little earning, I think money splitting can help thats split it into sections where you can put some in your investment and still not be affected.

Actually it's just a matter of hard work and dedication. If we are willing to learn and take action, we will be able to achieve positive results in managing our BTC assets. Success is not difficult, but requires persistence and the will to act. Regarding storing and adding BTC assets, it is important to find out on which exchanges the coin is available and at what price to buy it and is it considered safe. Once you have the coins, you need to know where and when to sell them. Easy.