I appreciate your insights and completely agree with your viewpoint on planning for unexpected and extreme scenarios. Being prepared for unforeseen event is always better than being caught off guard. When it comes to selling Bitcoin, it is important to make informed decisions based on personnel financial situation, risk tolerance and investment goals.

Allocating resources towards preparing for outrageous event is a wise decision, but it is also crucial to ensure that you are  not over committing towards unlikely scenarios to avoid unnecessary stress and financial strain.  

Overall, having a well-thought-out plan that takes into account potential risks and unexpected events is key to achieving long term financial stability.

There have been high side price scenarios in bitcoin since before I got involved in studying bitcoin (in late 2013), when I got into bitcoin, there were already scenarios for $1million bitcoin, and of course, since bitcoin's then existence and price history were shorter, those kinds of claims seemed way more speculative (and theoretical) rather than fact-based, so the passage of an additional 9 years.. or even to witness bitcoin operating for more than 14 years can provide quite a bit more confidence in terms of the growth patterns of various network effects - including the studying of the network categories that had been outlined by Trace Mayer around 2015 - https://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/the-seven-network-effects-of-bitcoin/

Even in this post from late 2014 shows a projection for $1 million bitcoin for mid-2026.. and I am pretty sure that there were threads on the topic that went up to $1million or more per bitcoin that were earlier than 2013.

So in some sense, we are debating more about when $1 million rather than if $1 million, even if the "if" part is not 100% certain either....

Of course, one of our more recent entrants into the bitcoin space (Greg Foss), suggests that his model for $2 million bitcoin is a conservative one, and he does not want to place a timeline on his projection because there is a lot of uncertainty in terms of attempting to project both price and time (even though in this article, Foss seems to be suggesting $2 million per bitcoin by 2031), and Foss's projection is using "today's dollar value" rather than relying upon either inflation or a debasement of the dollar in order to achieve those kinds of bitcoin price trajectory values.

And regarding the pizza story in which Laszlo bought two pizzas for 10k bitcoin, don't get fooled by that.. because it hardly even matters regarding how many bitcoin that Laszlo used to buy those pizzas since bitcoin hardly even had any price at that time - so anyone who was "in the know" about bitcoin in May 2010 or so (hey that is already nearly a year and a half of bitcoin already being in existence and operating live), there was no price for bitcoin and hardly anyone knew about bitcoin.. so there is a lot of purpose to just start to network out bitcoin into various parts of the community and to even to start to engage in various kinds of price discovery.. which seemed to have had started right around the time (or soon after Laszlo's pizza transaction).

Frequently any of us who are hearing about bitcoin are faced with dealing with the information at the time that we find out about it, and surely if we made mistakes in the past or failed/refused to act upon information in the past, then hopefully we can learn from those mistakes and figure out strategies to deal with what we are going to do about our bitcoin exposure in current times rather than speculating too much about the past (beyond merely attempting to learn from those dynamics and attempting to consider those various past dynamics within a context that helps us to better learn about bitcoin's history - pricewise and otherwise).

Many times in this thread (and even in this forum), we have discussed, how any of us might deal with information that we hear about bitcoin in current times, and we cannot even necessarily presume that people know what bitcoin is, merely because they have heard the word or they have heard other people talk about bitcoin in various kinds of ways, so even in current times, there are a lot of people who think (believe) that they sufficiently and adequately know what bitcoin is merely because they have heard the word and they had spent some time learning about bitcoin, yet part of the problem remains that there is a lot of bad (and misleading) information out there, and so in that regard, it could take hundreds of hours of studying bitcoin before starting to assure one's self that s/he is starting to understand bitcoin and to sufficiently/adequately be able to differentiate the better information about bitcoin from the not so good information about bitcoin.  I am not even suggesting that it is easy to do, even though it is quite likely that we are still in a state in which there would be way more people investing into bitcoin if they actually understood it a bit better.. so in those regards, we remain in quite early days in bitcoin's adoption.. and $1 million prices can come to bitcoin fairly easily.. but it is likely still going to take a decent amount of time to get there, and of course, there are no guarantees that the path to $1million will be straight up, or that there will not be a lot of battles and pain along the way, including a variety of ways in which bitcoin HODLers are forcefully separated from their coins, in part due to their failure/refusal to sufficiently and adequately study/understand what is bitcoin.

I know that when I first got into bitcoin, in late 2013, I was at a place in my life in which I was specifically looking for new kinds of investing.. and bitcoin fit into my target (kind of investing that I was looking for) and I felt that I had time to "look into it" and to "spend time with it."

I cannot completely blame anyone who believes that s/he "does not have time" to look into bitcoin.. and I realize that in the life of any particular person, priorities change based upon what kinds of things they are pursuing whether they are engaged in professional explorations or even lifestyle priorities, yet one interesting aspect of bitcoin should be that the perilous nature of the whole fiat-based economic system may well be rearing its head and forcing questions about the whole fiat-based economic system to be brought into question in ways that were not as much present in the 90s and in the 00s.. and surely, I recall that I was NOT even that worried about the 2008-related shenanigans, because I had some movement of my investments that were fairly lucky in terms of pulling some value out of equities in 2007, and then slowly injecting value back into equities between 2009 and 2011.. so in some ways, I profited from the 2008 drop because co-incidentally, I had pulled some out.. but that was likely largely a kind of luck that did not really inspire me into "looking" into matters at that time, because I largely felt that my various investments (at that point of my life) were mostly working for me... and little by little i was getting ahead and ongoingly building wealth.. even though I was not thinking about things like bitcoin.

So, part of my point is that we cannot necessarily expect anyone to come to believe that they need to get involved in bitcoin, even if it seems to be becoming more clear that some kind of hedge against fiat-based-systems should be becoming more and more obvious.. especially in recent times of seeming panic from Fed reserves  and also the banking problems that seem to have some weird resolutions, and including some of the traveling restrictions and the social monitoring that seems to have had been pushed in the past few years with the "pandemic" as a kind of weird excuse that is not really seeming to "add up" as much as it sounded fine in early 2020.. but a lot of contradictions and lack of evidence has come to the forefront that may also start to inspire normal folks to want to investigate into manners in which they might be able to hedge against some of the seeming irregularities of the fiat-based systems and status quo financial investments... including that even the possibilities that we might have another real estate bubble and various other bubbles popping.... to cause questions about where to put value that can be sustained over 4-10 years or maybe even 20 to 30 years.

Of course, each of us start from differing places in terms of how much wealth we might have or how much income we might have that we might be able to invest, so it seems to me that the more that we end up investing into certain kinds of assets/currencies/properties/commodities, then the more we will pay attention to them more.

So there seem to be ways that we can better learn about ourselves and our investments by investing into things and then we start to pay more attention to which ones we are invested into.

Each of us are likely somewhat greedy and self-interested creatures, and I am not really sure what it is about bitcoin that caused me to learn a lot more about myself, because before I came into bitcoin, I had already established dollar cost averaging ways of investing, but there was nothing in my investment history that was even close to as volatile as bitcoin and nothing that was so intricately complex of an investment that had ways in which it realistically could have impacts on a lot of different sectors of the world, so I learn about myself beyond the terms of my cashflow, measuring how many bitcoins I was accumulating (and how), my other investments, my view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, my timeline, risk tolerance, and my time, skills, goals (investment/lifestyle targets) and my abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments.  There were other aspects of fields of study in the world that I learned better in terms of game theory, politics, monetary theory, technology, some aspects of reading price charts and attempts at comparative analysis, predictive analysis and other areas, and surely I am not even going to proclaim to have become an expert in any of the many areas that bitcoin seems to potentially touch.

Frequently, when we learn new areas or fields of study, and we might not necessarily realize what we had not known previously, but there can also end up being a lot of ways in which we learn about the existence of many areas that still do not know very well, even if we spend a lot of time studying, and then even studying individuals versus ideas and trying to figure out the extent to rely upon authorities that we might trust and not trust, which may largely be attempts at honing and improving critical thinking skills.   

JJG, I believe I may have been in a bearish mood when I posted that that day. But after some meditation, I give you a more bullish context. Bitcoin might start playing the role of "Honey Badger don't care" again and go up in defiance of what the economy, or the legacy markets are doing.

 

Possible? Probably. Unbelievable? Perhaps, but we HODL!

It's not easy to refrain from getting caught up with whatever the BTC price might be doing in the short-term. .and then once some seemingly extreme BTC price move happens, then get caught into a kind of thinking/believe that the short-term direction (momentum) is going to continue (and then suddenly the momentum reverses), and for sure the past several weeks have played out in see-sawing kinds of ways for bitcoin, and even if we look at the BTC price charts, there is nothing in the charts that really look very scary - except perhaps that bitcoin seems to be (at least temporarily) playing out the opposite of the various other calamities that are taking place in the overall market - and there seems to be a quite a bit of hostility being expressed towards bitcoin and maybe even some decently strong attack actions too.. but like you mention, honey badger does not seem to give too many shits, and truly if various governments (like the USA) become more and more hostile (and wanting to battle with bitcoin), then it is likely going to cause battles within the country but also likely cause some of the BTC price movements to get their initiatives from outside the USA locations, so surely there are some sayings within bitcoin that governments are not able to ban bitcoin, but instead they are able to ban themselves from bitcoin..


....and we have seen quite a few examples of governments banning themselves (and frequently certain fall out to their citizens) from bitcoin, but then they seem as if they end up having to flip-flop in terms of their banning and unbanning and then banning again and just showing that they are not really able to have as BIG of an effect on "controlling" bitcoin as they seem to be striving to accomplish - especially since BTC is an international phenomena and the word is getting out more and more that bitcoin has a potentiality (and even a likelihood) to be able to benefit everyone, and even though the "rich" can benefit too, the "rich" are likely going to have their wealth transferred away from them because they are spending too much time failing/refusing to recognize bitcoin and/or to appropriately allocate into bitcoin, which continues to create opportunities that are available to less well off (less financially rich) than other folks in the world to be able to advantage themselves by investing into bitcoin and even attempting to be prudent about their creating and following an ongoing investment into bitcoin that likely will pay off well over the longer period - even if there are continued battles and uncertainties in the shorter-term periods.

and for sure none of this UPpity is guaranteed.. but yeah we HODL and we accumulate BTC if we still have not gotten enough and especially if we are barely starting in bitcoin then we should be considering buying regularly and then maybe saving extra to buy on dips too.. and yes, none of us know how much further dips there are going to be or how much should be saved for the further dips, and that remains part of the justification to just buy regularly and be careful not to wait around too much, just in case dips do not happen and just in case such dips (if they do happen?) do not go as low as anticipated.

$28500 price of Bitcoin is definitely indicating its bullish movement and buying from this level can be a right decision. But if Bitcoin goes below $27000 there is possibility of some push back. As we saw a few days ago after hitting the $25000 price it turned lower again. However, the Bitcoin price is saving energy through a pullback before reaching new heights. This can be called a turning point.
Currently the Federal Reserve has raised rates by 25 bps despite the growing crisis in the banking sector which is positive for Bitcoin and I believe it will make a significant effect on btc movement.

Correct, so I will give my self as another example. Although I heard bitcoin years ago, I was not that serious, until I join and enter in 2017. That what the year wherein we reach all time high, I was not here prior, so I said to myself this is good. And then the bear market started and most of the individuals that I might have been with that time frame could have quit their job and focus more on this market (because I remember such thread early 2018, around January when we are still in the euphoric stage, I don't know what happen to those individuals though). So if by chance I also quit my job and concentrate on trading, then it's going to be very difficult for me in 2018-2020. Luckily I didn't do that, and so we all know that 2018 was very tough for those first timers like me. But I did survived and learn a valuable lesson from it, that is, the bear market is the best time to accumulate and simply HODL on it. And so when the bear market strikes last year, the last 6 months of it I'm continuing to do DCA or shall we shall still buying as much as I can, save it and then wait for the next bull run. I know it's mentally though, but that is also a character that I developed in Bitcoin investment. You really need to focus and not to be emotional just because you see your porftolio jumping 10%-20% in a day and thinking to sell some. Wait for the right time to offload your stash to maximize your profits. So as you get t he experience, you level up and become a better investor. 

Well, if we use your forum registration date as the time you got started in bitcoin, then surely there would have likely been quite the dilemma about what to do, when you are entering into an area in which there was a lot of disputes at that time, and also the BTC price had already run up to reach ATHs again at the beginning of the year, but there were also questions/concerns that the price was going to crash back below $500 before resuming up... so there were quite a few folks (whether newbies or not) who were either talked out of their coins or perhaps persuaded to wait... which in either case of selling at that time or waiting could have caused a certain amount of getting fucked by the then bad predominant advice.

So yeah your potentially earlier days into BTC in April 2017 could well have had provided an opportunity to get some BTC below the subsequent lowest BTC price points in 2018/2019/2020 (which would have been abilities to accumulate BTC at various price points between $1k and $3k and surely more fortunate to accumulate closer to $1k.. even though any of those prices between $1k and $3k feel pretty good right now) - even though frequently it can be hard to practically exercise such a practice to lump sum front load your investment into BTC because you may well have not had enough value available to inject into BTC and we really ONLY know from subsequent events that the BTC price did not drop back below $3,124 and surely even getting BTC below $4k after September 2017 was a pretty uncommon (infrequent) occurrence.

So in that regard, it was not always clear to know that sub $4k coins were not really going to be very easy to obtain after September 2017, and even in recent times, there had been thoughts that BTC prices were going to allow for BTC to be purchased below $4k.. yet by now, there are a lot of folks who now realize that the sub-$4k ship sailed long ago.. and any actually ability to get coins below sub $4k after September 2017 had been for ONLY short-periods of time and you better be ready, willing and able to act when such opportunities are presented to you.

There might be some truth in regards to sub-$20k having a similar kind of fate.. and so when we passed above $20k in December 2020, many of us might not have realized that the quantity of time to be able to purchase BTC below $20k was limited, and even our recent fortune to have quite a lot of opportunities to buy BTC below $20k between June 2022 and as recently as two weeks ago may well have been the end of an era... even though currently, I am not quite so confident to proclaim that the current local bottom of $15,479 is in (from November 2022), yet in 2 or 3 years, we might start to consider sub $20k prices for BTC as a similar kind of phenomena that we currently consider sub $4k BTC to be.. something that is hardly likely to happen (perhaps less than 1% odds.. which are "non-zero" odds, but not anything that any of us (who are trying to live in the real world with prudent and realistic approaches to our financial and psychological lives) should be putting any kind of serious preparations into pie in the sky events).


Exactly!  Part of the reason that I believe that it is better to mostly attempt to plan our BTC strategies around bottom price scenarios, including that I still believe that the 200-week moving average serves as a pretty strong and decent bottom indicator - even though in recent times, we spent nearly 9 months of mostly being below the 200-week moving average, which has so far been a pretty uncommon occurrence in BTC, but still way safer than planning around the top BTC prices, such as the top of the cycle that you had mentioned in late 2017/early 2018.

By the way, currently the 200-week moving average is right at about $25,427; however, when we first went below it in June 2022, it was around $22,200-ish.  https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/    So the 200-week moving average has continued to move up, but staying mostly below it for around 9 months has surely caused its upward slope to become more graduated in recent times.. but for me, it still seems to be a pretty decent ongoing bottom indicator.. even if BTC prices might still go below it again.. but still way safer in terms of financial and psychological health to plan around bottoms rather than tops.


For sure, there is going to be some individual variance in regards to what might be the better ways to attempt to deal with BTC's likely inevitable volatility - and one of the difficulties is that we know that BTC is going to be volatile even while at the same time, we cannot be completely sure which direction or how much.

So part of the problem that any newbie normie has when coming into bitcoin is to figure out how much cashflow (or capital) to initially allocate to bitcoin, and then how much to allocate on an ongoing basis, because even though most people have some abilities to figure out and calculate matters related to their own finances and psychology, there still are unknowns in regards to personal finances and psychology and then there is the additional unknown about how to treat bitcoin as compared to other investment opportunties, so in the end all of those various knowns and unknowns have to be combined in order to come up with a individually tailored strategy that allows for a certain level of comfort that is not completely vulnerable to the BTC price extremes that might come, so there can be some ways to calculate BTC's volatility in terms of projecting out various extremes and then therefore turn one of the unknowns into more of a known - even though it still can be difficult, even if any of us has already projected out what we are going to do and how we are going to go forward even if some extreme scenarios (even beyond our calculations) ends up playing out.

Some people proclaim that we need to be through one whole BTC price cycle in order to really start to become comfortable with BTC's price volatility and whatever might be our BTC accumulation/maintenance approach, but surely it is possible that some of us might need to go through a few of those cycles before becoming comfortable, even though being in profits likely helps to bring comfort, but at the same time, depending upon how old any of us might be, it can take a real long time to build up the principle in any investment, even if that investment has been largely doing better than expected (or maybe even better than other investment opportunties that seem to be available).


Hahahahaha  .. Yeah.  It is funny how even a small kind of an obstacle can keep any of us "in check" during some of the times in which we are feeling some inclinations to "take some off the table," and for sure, we can never know for sure if we made the right decision until much further down the road.. so many of us who have been in bitcoin for a while have had those kinds of moments of potential weakness.. and we can probably recognize and appreciate that those kinds of potential moments of weakness likely subside more and more the longer that we are in bitcoin because as any of us should be able to imagine that there are guys who have average costs of $1 per BTC, $10 per BTC,$100 per BTC, $1,000 per BTC, $10k per BTC, $30k per BTC, $40k per BTC, $60k per BTC, and perhaps some other variations, and many of us likely can imagine that the lower is our average cost per BTC, then the less likely that we are going to get worried about dips that come further down the road because they are likely not as significant... even if such dips might still bother us.

And the considerations of having regret and/or psychological pressures are not ONLY about the average cost per BTC, because there are some cases of guys who might have ONLY invested small amounts of value into bitcoin, and they have been worried about keeping their average price per BTC down.  Let's take the guy who bought 20 BTC in 2015 for around $300 per BTC, so he invested a total of $6k, versus the guy who might have bought BTC between 2013 and 2017 and ended up buying 200 BTC, but his costs per BTC were around $1k per BTC (3.33x higher BTC costs as compared with the one who lump summed into BTC in 2015), so he invested around $200k into BTC (about 33.3x more invested as compared with the one who lump summed into BTC in 2015). 

Which one would you rather be?  Are you concerned about how much cheaper your coins might end up being if you end up investing way less into bitcoin because you had been overly whimpy in your perspective and your BTC investment approach?  Part of my suggestion has been to DCA and continue to invest, even if continuing to invest might cause your average per BTC to go up and the amount that you invested to end up going up, yet at the same time, I understand that each of us has to come to our own conclusions regarding these kinds of matters, and we are not necessarily going to know or to recognize if our approach sufficiently paid off (with fewer regrets) than perhaps maybe something like 10, 20 or 30 years down the road, and then by then, we will not be able to go back and to change our approach.. and we can ONLY change our approach right now (that is if we need to change it)..

If we continue to attempt to learn along the way, we likely will not be able to fix all of our mistakes, but we will likely catch some of them earlier and be able to improve our approach, even though there are never really any guarantees in regards to which investments to make and then how much to allocate, and part of the mistakes that some people historically had made has been to fail/refuse to get off zero.. so even if they might not have had liked bitcoin as an investment they likely would have been better to put 1% into bitcoin rather than zero.. even though the more aggressive ones of 10% or more or even 25% or more may well have had a better risk adjusted outcome in terms of how bitcoin has ended up performing as compared to any other investments that they had made.